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Message: Re: L2 - Asks are VERY thin, Mark-hznm

Sep 15, 2010 01:09PM
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Sep 15, 2010 01:23PM
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Sep 15, 2010 01:40PM
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Sep 15, 2010 02:59PM

A lot of golds and silvers have gone crazy. I normally follow miners instead of explorecos, and a bunch I follow have popped 10% or more over September so far. Gold is advancing past resistance right now, and silver has gone completely insane. This completely wrecks the economic models that the pros previously used to determine fair price, and so everyone just rushes in to change things. Plus, maybe these companies are putting out their best news in September? A lot of good news seems to be coming out.

It's totally cool for a stock to advance quickly after it has released news that changes the fundamental value of the company. You'll still see it overshoot, though, as the momos jump in for a quick day-trade and then all try to bail out before the greatest fool's bid has been filled. It's basically the same behaviour as a bubble, except much faster and smaller.

Basically, when you've got momos getting lured into the stock (or just plain fools that buy "because it's going up"), the stock price will always overshoot its proper target because of irrational excess demand. Then it undershoots back, as long-term holders perhaps decide to lighten up their position for a small profit and so dump into the bids. Then the last momos to get in all decide to quickly cut their losses ("crap! I bought at .78 and now it's already back to .74! sell! sell!") and the stock gets driven back below its new fair value. Then latecomers see a bargain ("wow! it was up to .78 but now I can get in at .72!"), and it bounces back up. Wash rinse repeat.

Eventually, the market needs a few days after any spike to settle out a proper new price for the stock. 2 oscillations seems to be about the limit though. I'm still a rookie at this, but that seems to be what I've seen so far.

And if the stock advances quickly despite NOT having released news that changes the fundamental value of the company? Say, because its CEO got interviewed on a radio show? Well, those spikes seem to be more short-lived and look like they settle back where the stock originally was. Maybe you could say that Candido going on Jay Taylor's show has slightly increased the demand for GNH shares (by adding to their following); that may be worth a few percent.

But today's spike could easily wither away back to .70 over the next few days because there was no fundamental change in company value aside from Taylor's one listener with money buying 400,000 shares at 11:30AM.

You want a big spike, that should come with a proper news release from GNH, reporting on their drill program. Hopefully Friday?

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