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Message: From today's Gartman Letter...... (11-30)

From today's Gartman Letter...... (11-30)

posted on Nov 30, 2009 10:12AM

From today's Gartman Letter...... (11-30)

"COMMODITY PRICES ARE MOVING HIGHER as the panic subsides regarding Dubai and as the dollar is once again “for sale” on the forex market. The flight to quality has ended, for now, and as such the dollar is being sold down and commodity prices are being bid back up. The “schizophrenia” of the markets is perhaps best seen in gold, where prices flew higher last Wednesday when the first news of the Dubai situation was coming to the fore. Now gold prices are reacting weakly to the news that the Central Bank of the UAE stands ready to provide liquidity to Dubai, and with that news gold is under a bit of pressure… not material pressure, but pressure nonetheless. Following the flight higher early last week, why can’t gold trade down a bit today and tomorrow and perhaps for another day or so. But are we likely to see more of the panic liquidation that took gold to $1135 at one point Friday, as the world’s margin clerks began to hit bids for anything and everything to insure that they had the liquidity on hand necessary in case the capital markets truly became unglued? Likely not.

Adding to the weakness in gold this morning is the “news’ that the market, collectively, believes that the Reserve Bank of Australia will move again rather swiftly to tighten monetary policy, raising rates once again tomorrow when the Bank meets. The Bank’s “target rate” is presently 3.50% and the consensus is
that that is going to 3.75% tomorrow in light of Australia’s stronger housing prices, her better-than expected employment situation and the fact that consumer prices are rising. Money then, at the margin, is moving to Australia… and by extension to New Zealand… that might have otherwise have gone to gold"

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