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Message: Crash scenarios

Re: Crash scenarios- mexico

posted on Sep 24, 2008 05:06PM

Robert, I spoke personally with Mark Bailey for about a half an hour in Denver two weeks ago about this very subject, and I can honestly tell you, he does not have a high level of concern involving the political situation in Mexico.

A member of my investment group is a Spanish speaking ER doctor in San Diego and he rotuinely interviews patients travelling in and out of Mexico involving the political situation in the country, getting aman on the street view, and Mexican's routine responses to questions about political instabilty are of the nature, "What in the world are you talking about?"

I'd ask you to imagine a gay rights parade in San Francisco in which violence erupted unexpectedly and the headlines in Mexico read, "Riots in San Francisco, Governement Stabilty in Question, Revolution Possible". You would laugh. But perhaps people in Mexico, who know nothing of what life in the United States is really like, might not feel the same way.

Also, I've extensively examined situations in gold mining regions around the globe and I must say, it's hard to find a safer place than Mexico right now. When you've got choices between Russia, China, Ecuador, Venezuela, Columbia. Holy cow. I'd even choose Mexico over the U.S. right now.

It's interesting you should ask what would happen in Mexico if there was a depression here. I recently had a Mexican patient in the ER here who was 97 years old and had all her mental faculties. She married a U.S. serviceman and moved to the U.S from Mexico City in 1941. Basically she had grown up in Mexico City from 1910 until 1941. I asked her what life was like in Mexico City during the Depression here in the United States. She basically told me that it was the same as it had always been, not much different the whole time she grew up.

I've lived in a third world country as a Peace Corps Volunteer. A major crash here that would cause significant economic and psycological turmoil might not do a whole lot if the same thing happened in another country. Most places don't have all the crap we have here. And honestly, people are a lot more maleable in other places. They are more used to turmoil and change and aren't as soft and lazy as we've become here.

Also remember, the depression was great for gold mining here in the U.S. It would be just as good for gold mining in Mexico in my view. Bull





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