So GM today filed a Schedule 13D with the SEC outlining the fact that they own 30% of LAC (NewCo), owning 62,162,326 shares. I did some digging and some math to try to figure out what this means. We know that LAC set aside 11,890,848 Alternative Exercise Warrants for the T2 capital raise of $330 mln, but this was based on a pre-adjusted share price of $27.74, and we all know that the adjusted price is well below that. We also know that, regardless of share price, GM could end owning no more than 30% after T2. 

The Schedule 13D appears to show that GM intends to purchase the maximum number of shares possible to get them to the 30% ceiling. This assumption on my part is borne out by the math. The Schedule 13D says GM will have 30% ownership with 62,162,326 shares. Once the Warrants are exercised, LAC will have a new total of common shares of 207,160,119. This would give GM 30%.

So how much might T2 be worth? To get to 62 mln shares, GM would need to buy 47,160,119 Warrants (shares). They'll be paying market price as per the Agreement, so let's say it's around today's price of around $9.60. That would mean an investment of around $452,737,142, or $122.7 mln more than originally anticipated.

This is what Schedule 13D and the math are saying. Please can anyone find fault with my math or comment on what the Schedule 13D filing could mean if not what I've described?

GM Schedule 13D_12Oct2023