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Dear Agoracom Family,

I want to thank all of you for your patience with us over the past 48 hours and apologize for what was admittedly a botched launch of our new site.

As you can see, we have reverted back to the previous version of the site while we address multiple forum functionality flaws that inexplicably made their way into the launch.

To this end:

1.We have identified 8 fundamental but easily fixable flaws that will be corrected in the coming week, so that you can continue to use the forums exactly as you've been accustomed to.

2.Additionally we will also be implementing a couple of design improvements to "tighten up" the look and feel of the forums.

Have a great Sunday, especially those of you like me that are celebrating Orthodox Easter ... As well as those of you who are also like me and mourning another Maple Leafs Game 7 exit ... Ugggh!

Sincerely,

George et al

Message: Long term Lithium chemicals price

I posted links that both support the growth of H2 "Zero Emissions" technology in the form of fuel cells and direct ignition of Hydrogen inside what appears to be otherwise an internal combustion engine.  Toyota is working on both of diverse technologies and offers currently commercial applications.

Toyota isn't the only company working in that field.  Hyundai and Honda are also reaching out to hydrogen solutions as is Intelligent Energy in the U.K.

"David Woolhouse, Intelligent energy’s chief executive, said: “With 25 per cent of all passenger cars expected to have hydrogen fuel cell powertrains, this clean technology represents the future.

“Our Drive product has the potential to shake up the hydrogen fuel cell market and accelerate the transition towards zero-emission mobility.”

So, Mr. Woolhouse is obviously of the opinion that the Pros outweigh the Cons for hydrogen vehicles to displace BEVs as the chief challenger to ICE petroleum driven vehicles.  

British-made compact hydrogen fuel cell aims to make zero-emission mobility a reality (msn.com)

Is this just a classic example of breast beating and ego or is there a real threat to BEVs in the near future.  Ok, Ok... "define: near future"!  Back to the same old problem:  When

After looking at a bunch of the information touting a swift move to the #2 position on the Totem Pole of transportation engine choices for Hydrogen (both Fuel Cell and Direct Hydrogen Combustion Engines) I believe there are too many obstacles in the way for that transition to occur within the next 10 years, if ever.

The hydrogen folks count on the "Zero Emissions" angle, but they don't want to mention that the energy it takes to perform electrolysis in order to obtain hydrogen in the H2 gaseous state makes the replacement of Lithium powered batteries actually a greater environmentally safer option and a cheaper option.  Sure, hydrogen is everywhere in the combined form as H2O, but when you are talking about making massive amounts of H2 from H2O you are also talking about the evironmentally detrimental effects of securing and providing enough energy to make that electrolysis process happen.  Even if wind and solar were to make such a process less demanding on the environment then there are problems for the environment in order to provide the wind and solar apparatus as well.  Everything has a "cost".  

Setting up the infrastructure would also be a challenge, just as it has been for setting up the infrastructure for recharging BEV batteries.  One big difference:  Recharge facilities have a huge jump on hydrogen refueling facilities, they are increasing incrementally in large amounts daily as opposed to the hydrogen refueling facilities that are still back at the starting line.

Shell Shuts All Hydrogen Stations In California, Impacting FCEV Owners | Carscoops

Pain at the Hydrogen Pump

Hydrogen fuel prices in California have more than doubled in less than three years.

Some Hydrogen Car Owners Are Still Waiting for the Future to Arrive | WIRED

 

I think that the article linked below from an always reliable source, The Mercury News, covers the difficulties that hydrogen fuel cell car owners have had in California very well:

Few stations and $200 to fill up: Life on California’s ‘Hydrogen Highway’ (mercurynews.com)

TomSk: "I know the last 12-18 months tested our investors sanity…..and at this point I am not sure what is right or wrong….but I am wondering about this long term price forecasts……and the long term S/D projections…"

We are all wondering about the long term price forecasts for lithium, Tom.  That is why we are here with LAC and LAAC.  

I reviewed all of this information posted about H2 as an alternative to Lithium powered BEVs simply because H2 is the one that is getting most of the Press articles being generated about how Lithium is on its death bed since H2 will replace it almost overnight.  

A serious review of the shortcomings of this prognosticated move of H2 to where it quickly replaces lithium as the #2 challenger to petroleum ICE vehicles reveals the gigantic holes in that logic and the usual misinformation being spit out by the "Journalist" class of sensationalists.

Lithium is here to stay for a long time.  H2 will not suddenly, if ever, be #2 in regard to providing power for commercial and private transportation despite all of the "Lithium is Dead" bleating of "Journalists".  Reality is something that isn't taught in "J" schools very often since sensationalism is what keeps the wheels of "Journalism" moving down the road.  Truth is an obstacle to sensationalism and is easily discarded on the computer laptops of the "J" crowd.

On the other hand, limiting the topic to Supply vs Demand of lithium itself then we can focus more on the daily sensational articles being produced in print, on TV and on the Internet about how another major lithium mine has been announced in the U.S., in Canada, in China, in South America, in England or Europe or where next:  Antarctica?  Maybe in your backyard, eh?

It can't be emphasized enough that if we examine the transformation of a lithium mine from the time the potential mine site has the initial core sample bore holes driven until the ribbon cutting ceremony occurs reference the first kilogram of lithium is produced and packaged for sale by that mine then LAC is way, way forward on that line and LAAC has reached the goal post but...... here is the "but".... the vast majority of the darlings of the "Journalists" are either back at the starting line or years and years behind the spot on that line occupied by LAC.

This is a race of potential producers of lithium that will see many of the competitors not only falter, many will fail in the attempt.  The current low price of lithium is hardly conducive to further development for a large number of "Juniors" struggling with their own financing problems and just trying to keep the lights on, much less meet the transition goals from the drilling bore holes stage all the way through the tremendous obstacles they must conquer to cross the finish line and produce that first kilogram of lithium.  LAC has met 90% of those challenges and stands up near the finish line.  2026 is within grasp.  Sure, we don't know what new challenges are there for LAC between now and the finish line and it could be 2027 since LAC has had a habit of moving the goal line throughout its history, but all of the "newbies" on the block are going to have to transition through those same obstacles that, for the most part, LAC has already conquered.  

Again, the current low Lithium prices have a backhanded way of clearing out the riff raff in this race.  That is the "Silver Lining", if you want to look at it that way, from the current misery of low lithium prices that LAC is enduring and the demise of many of the "also rans" along the way will benefit LAC and lithium prices in the long run.

JMO

Okiedo

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