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Message: Q & A

Re: Q & A with more questions

in response to by
posted on Apr 26, 2010 10:24PM

if complant is taking partial loan payment in the form of production....then i would expect revenue to mag industries to be less....that being said i am not expecting revenue of 550/ton...... it is only reasonable to expect complant to attempt to get a special price....first of all for being the financiers and margin for their own fertilizer marketing company as well as a hedge that would protect them in event that targeted production was not reached in a reasonable period of time...etc......so this creates a problem for mag industries and potential future investors......i expect that there will be a significant initial discount of share price as price is generally based on future potential earnings...without a track record the big boys may decide to wait it out and investors like you and me will be the market makers.......so an initial pe of 2x,3x,4x would be what i expect........or somewhere between $1 and $2....

what i am more concerned with is what the arbitrator will value mengo at.....if complant exercises within the alloted time period we should not expect more than 51% of the input costs.....plus 20-30% for a finders fee (based on the input costs) to mag industries.....mengo potash will be a separate company share structure unknown and market cap unknown.....so assuming mag industries gets .51x200,000,000+.31x200,000,000 or approx. 160,000,000... what is on their agenda for this money......so if you were running this company what would you do with this infusion of capital...

complant may not exercise its option....it may instead ask for guarantees of loan repayment by mag industries with certain guaranteed production targets....deliverable to complant......default may make us even more vulnerable then than we are now at the preproduction preconstruction stage of mengo......

none of us should expect 3-4-5 or 6 baggers...at this stage.....

by the way this is all speculation on my part....and adds absolutley no insight into what will happen after the announcement of financing by complant....but i expect our share price will go to between 0.80 and1.00......and some of us will get our initial investment back...if we do not get greedy and stupid

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