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Message: Determining Fair Market Value for Oil and Gas Properties

Determining Fair Market Value for Oil and Gas Properties

posted on Feb 26, 2010 07:51PM

This is nowhere as detailed as Brymstone's calculations but a simpler way of seeing the blue sky potential.

The following from ESR:

Price per Barrel of Reserves in the Ground Method

  • With this valuation method, gas volumes are converted to equivalent barrels of oil (BOE) on either a heating value (BTU-equivalent) or price-ratio basis.
    • It is worth noting that these two ratios can be divergent based on the current state of the coal, oil, and gas markets.
      • For instance, a barrel of oil usually has a 6-to-1 energy equivalency with 1mcf of gas. However, the price-ratio-equivalency may be 12-to-1 or even 20-to-1 -- in the later case, it may be said that natural gas is competing with coal instead of oil. It should be noted that any perceived arbirtrage opportunities here may be illusory -- the volumetric energy density of oil far exceeds that of gas and coal, even though natural gas has a much greater energy density that petroleum on a per-kilogram basis; in applications where space is at a premium -- such as in small vehicle transportation -- petroleum-based fuels may have no viable substitutes. An offsetting factor here is that the conversion-efficiency of combined-cycle (and simple-cycle) gas turbines far exceeds that of both coal-burning and petroleum-burning systems.
  • A rule of thumb is that oil reserves in the ground are worth one-third the current market value.

I know we are still a ways from proving this yet but here are some figures to ponder over:

713 million barrels of oil equivalent x $25 (approx. one third current market value of a barrel oil) =$17 billion

$17,000,000,000/200,000,000 shares outstanding=$85 per share

I've heard of oil in offshore politically risky locations (neither of those factors come into play here) being valued at under $10 a barrel, using that figure:

713 million barrels of oil equivalent x $8 = $5.7 billion

$5,700,000,000/200,000,000 shares outstanding=$28 per share

I certainly enjoyed reading Brymstone's price per share analysis however I do believe some major infrastructure costs are absent from the analysis, regardless what a great post.

Either way you view it the potential is extraordinary!

Mikee

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