Cabel - As I am not a scientist I'm hoping some of them on this board will step up and comment as well. You have some great questions. I will give it a try to answer them.
If they could get a $12 billion push in market cap cause their Phase 2 showed promise for Alzheimer's drug,... what would we get for a promising report for CD for a sub-group study,...
What are the differences between a Phase 2 and a sub group of a phase 3,..?
Will investors make the connection between CD and Alzheimer's,...?
We are a Canadian company not on the Nasdaq,,....?
Would we get at least a $5 billion increase in market share,... anyone up to doing a comparision between the two,... results of there phase 2 (which later failed their phase 3) and our sub-group study,..?
I am assuming you are referring to BIIB in your $12 billion M/C increase. With that in mind BIIB continually garners press exposure that a relatively unknown company like RVX does not. I believe our P III trial had more patients in this sub study group than what BIIB had in their P II trial. Certainly, the length of time that the patients were being dosed is longer in our P III trial. They were studying Alzheimer's patients specifically and did not differentiating between Alzheimer's and Vascular Dementia. Our sub study targeted all patients over 70 years old and measured cognitive function based on a MoCA score. In my readings it suggests that approximately 70% of Alzheimer's patients have some form of Vascular Dementia and DM's comments at last years AGM specifically referred to Vascular Dementia (I was going to shorten that to VD but it just didn't seem right).
So, with that prologue I will now give it a go.
1) Technology knows no boarders. (RIMM) was a great example for many years. There are zero drugs at this point in time to combat this significant problem that is growing at roughly 20% per year. There are many billions to be made for any company that comes up with a solution to this problem no matter where they are domiciled in the world. That many billions can be for both the company that came up with the solution and the company that ends up marketing the solution.
2) Number of patients and amount of time in the studies. Answered in the prologue
3) The connection between CD and Alzheimer’s and investors making that connection. My guess is that the spin doctors and the press will have the single biggest impact. Here I will have to bow to the scientists to guess at an answer.
4) We would likely get way more exposure being NASDAQ listed than TSX listed but don't let that sway you to much. As I mentioned earlier, technology knows no boundaries.
5) I my opinion it shouldn't matter where a company is domiciled. If the potential annual sales are US$20 billion then that should be the starting point before making adjustments up or down. The single biggest challenge will be finding that starting point. No, I will correct that, the single biggest challenge will be getting the FDA/EMA giving their blessing for the drug to pursue an NDA. That will be followed by the first part of #5. Don’t get stuck on that $20 billion number its just a number I pulled out of my……hat.
There are many examples of companies from outside the US boarders that have been acquired by US companies. It doesn't even have to stop there. Any company anywhere in the world that sees the market potential of a technology may decide to pursue the opportunity, we just happen to live on the North side of the largest single equity market in the world.
All IMO, DYODD.
tada
