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Message: Re: What will happen if warrant holders convert and then sell?

Newb1000 wrote:  "True I like the discount window part of it but you could have priced it better or waited until after data to get better pricing if you thought you had earth shattering data".

I was thinking in a similar vein, especially about waiting if the data about to be revealed at CTAD is particularily compelling.  It was GolfYeti's reasoning which finally flcked on the light switch for me in understanding what might very well be the rationale.  That's not to say he's right...only time will tell, but there is an awful lot of logic to it.  

I think it might be helpful to pursue your line of reasoning though....about waiting until after data, assuming of course that the numbers do end up exciting the market.

Firstly though I think the company's incredibly weak balance sheet cannot be stressed enough.  SEDI filings show 5 filings related to the use of shares for compensation of services on Nov 21 and 22nd.  I think everyone is in pretty much lock step agreement that in terms of finances the company is right now running on fumes.  

But let's assume the company waited until after CTAD to see how the market reacts, and let's further say that the numbers are good, as we're all hoping...good enough that it sends the PPS to $3 by December 10th.  I don't think the specifics as to the exact date and price are as important as the broader picture in this scenario.

Okay...so its December 10th, the company is pretty much broke, but at least the PPS has improved.  Now go to the market with a share offering.

The last time the company went to the market with a proposed offering was on May 14th, the pricing of the offering was announced a day later.    On May 14th the PPS for RVX.TO closed at $4.57, a day later with the offering priced at $4.00 per unit with each unitl comprising one share and one share purchase warrant convertible at $4.60....a day later the PPS dropped over a buck closing at $3.44

I don't know what kind of terms they'd be able to negotiate with an agent....but I imagine it would likely be similar to those that have happened in the past, units at a discount to the market price with warrants attached.  That last offering first announced on May 14th didn't close until June 7th, about 3 weeks in total.  

So on December 10th they'd likely be waiting until sometime after New Year's, when its pretty apparent in my opinion that the company needs money NOW, that's now as in yesterday. 

So instead of doing that it appears they've negotiated with some of the warrant holders and have arrived at a price of $1.33 for 15 million odd warrants, that if fully acted on should bring in something like $20 million by January 10th. 

As I noted earlier, I see a lot of logic to this line of thinking.....if the data is not good and the PPS doesn't move higher than the new $1.33 conversion price, then its all for nought....the only way it makes sense and works is with good data and a PPS that's moving higher, providing incentive for warrant holders to convert.  

Even if the newly converted warrants start being sold I don't think its a bad thing...its been noted by many already that the holders of these warrants are likely BIG BOYS, not us pikers who are holding the $2.05 and $4.60 warrants that aren't included.  Assuming this to be true, that is is big players involved, I believe they have the tools and know what levers to pull to get the herd excited and buying if they do decide to sell....nothing excites us sheep like a rising PPS.

Anyway I'm all out of salvia now for my spit balls....we only have 4 days of trading to find out the MOCA score numbers, and then just another 2 or 3 days after that to see where the PPS is and if its worth while to convert at $1.33 or not.

Night all....be blessed.

 

 

 

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