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Message: Re: All quiet on the western front
1
Jan 02, 2020 03:41PM
2
Jan 03, 2020 01:23PM

Agree Paladin ... I think this technology will arrive in port at some point, as long as RVX survives long enough to get it there, or "somebody" else gets it there ... 

It would be really nice to know the "takeaways" from the Noov 13 FDA meeting, filing statuses, and the projected path forward, long or short. We ALL (RVX, Investors, BP) need to know the path forward and what that entails from time/expenses/risk apects .....

Break-through status? ... would say regulatory has seen enough data accumulated to also believe in the merits and that apabetalone needs to get to market, even though TLD was a miss. I think this would accelerate value and deal making. We would all be thrilled, valuation would skyrocket, everyone could/would then be diving into the promising CHF/Renal/Cognitive data with much more anticipation rather than the current "yabut" status and yawning ...

Bolt-on? ... would also be very positive statement, but also a statement that there is still some "proving" to do, some risk remaining but still a positive vibe toward the data and outlook. IOW the BoM study and data is good, but we need more of it to meet our confidence threshhold. I think the market value would rise, but BP could still "wait & see" unless they can steal it.

New "full" endpoint refocused P3? ... back to the drawing board, enough promise to continue forward but who knows if the data would repeat, or new technologies arrive over the next 3-4 years of a new P3 duration? Would think RVX would be forced to cut a bargain deal ($1b? with future royalties earn out?) for apabetalone, and hand over the reins to an interested BP to carry a new P3 forward ... but, perhaps keep the "star factory" and use proceeds for new R&D perhaps with additional partners?

If I were a BP, I would be trying to wrestle control of apabetalone for a bargain "up front" price right now to alleviate "going forward" issues, and to limit financial risk to BP ... with an earn out or future royalties rewarding collaborative efforts to get apabetalone to marker ... share the risk? But the initial cash rises the closer apabetalone gets to regulatory/market acceptance.

So many scenarios, and iterations possibly ... just thinking thru my keyboard about the probabilities, and possibilities.

Given the accumulated data, and evolving view of apabetalone, along with the safety profile, it is hard for me to see RVX just simply shutting down, or selling the company, or divesting apabetalone for anything less than $1b in the rock bottom worst case scenario ... and of course higher valuations as we move up hierarchical flowchart of regulatory status possibilities.

I agree with GAC's position that RVX is worth "today" what the market says it is worth ($250m ish), but that can change in a hurry thru "goodwill" such as patent and FDA movement, or if a BP that "sees and believes" and has a desire, vision and resources to lead the epigenetics charge.

So for now, I remain pretty hung up on 1) operational funding for "time" luxury, and 2) worldwide Regulatory which I think are the "triggers" at this point, to bigger and better things (or, worse things potentially also I guess).

Again just spitballing and speculating, and "gaming" it out in my head ... jmho's

6
Jan 04, 2020 03:37PM
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