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Message: Re: Doom and gloom or meh....
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Mar 25, 2020 12:33PM
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Mar 25, 2020 02:07PM

If I'm reading the Imperial College report correctly, then the numbers of fatalities among the young are going to be incredibly small.  There's a table predicting that only 0.1% of 0 to 9 year olds will display symptoms requiring hospitalization, with only 5% of that 0.1% needing critical care, and ultimatley only .02% of those in this age group dying.  So per 100K population of 0-9 year olds that would mean just 100 symptomatic cases requiring hopsitalization, and only 5 of those requiring critical care....the mortality rate for this age group is less than 1 per 100K population.

The numbers for those 80+ however are alarming.  Over 27% requiring hospitalization, with 70.9% of that 27% needing critical care.  The infection fatality ratio rings in at 9.3% for this group according to the model they're using.  

https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk:8443/bitstream/10044/1/77482/5/Imperial%20College%20COVID19%20NPI%20modelling%2016-03-2020.pdf?fbclid=IwAR23c5ebBxIqiMTGS2RaCW5C-HsTtPpaqc39pvk2ajD4SzVFXzEeM19gDUk

Obviously conditions like Diabetes, CVD and Hypertension (among others) are much more present in older populations....which is where Resverlogix and Apabetalone can hopefully step in.  Its a little depressing to think that if the FA or SSRA had been done then the powering could have been increased to avoid the narrow miss.  But it is what it  is and we are where we are.  

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Mar 25, 2020 03:32PM
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Mar 25, 2020 04:03PM
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Mar 25, 2020 04:20PM
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