Darkest before the dawn? Lots of people tapping out ... Kelsee, Eagle Eye, SF99, Telepanel, GAC & narmac on the ledge? Don't blame any of them, it's been a long road. Lots of ups & downs, disappointments, reasons to think it is a pipedream at times.

Maybe apabetalone isn't the wonder drug we all hoped a year ago when we were looking for homeruns in CVD, CKD, Dimentia ... but it does seem like the drug is actually narrowing down to a real focused indication and benefit. Maybe it won't be a $10b sale and company, but maybe it will? Considering the library also? If apabetalone can get approved in the next few years, and truly open that door to epigenetics from theory to practicality? With a significant and accomplished BP driving the train?

Most truly successful start ups transition, at some point, from the founders and visionaries to people who actually know how to take their ideas and early work to commercial and scaled operational growth and success.

I'd be happy with a $200m check up front also, enough to finance the comapny for 2-3 more years, along with safety, BTD, an FDA letter and new study re-directed to the previous pieces of extraordinary BoM data, a clear path to commercialization upon study success, ... and a significant BP partner ... this is the "shot in the arm" needed at this point.

Diabetic CVD alone is still a huge market, even limited to renal complications which are almost inevitable for diabetics. This will likely be the initial indication for apabetalone upon approval should it come right?

Anyone care to revisit that specific market potential with number, patients with Diabetes/CVD/CKD? 

Let's not worry about what apabetalone is not, and refocus on what it appears that it actually is ... which I believe to be a very valuable compound for Diabetes/CVD/CKD potentially at this point ... with PAH, Covid, and maybe a few other things, plus stregnth & dosing oprions and an epigenetic library to be explored.

At one point, weren't we looking at approximately 8 million potential patients worldwide with diabetic CVD? Please correct me on the numbers, but a potential pool of 8,000,000 times $1500 (est) dosing = $12b in potential annual sales ... if only half are dosed then times 50% = $6b in potential sales ... if only a quarter then times 25% = $3b in potential sales ... numbers may be off, please comment/help?

I would think the company should be worth at least one year estimated annual sales in an eventual stepped/phased buyout, ... but potentially more given patent longevity, library, etc.

Thoughts? 

Again, darkest before the dawn? ... if Don and his "forward looking statements" (FDA meeting/letter & BP partnering) are not "fos" then we are on the slope and possible "precipice" of some VERY good news, and things still ... I still think this looks like a $3-6b company within 2-3 years if they can nail down BoM2 endpoints in alignment with BoM1 results with solid BP partnering experience and guidance. I would be VERY happy with a rise back to spring of last year pps ($4 ish) in the short term, with some key announcements soon, and with a potential $8-20 pps ROI down the road, but the more the merrier.

Not speculating, as much as just playing with more refinement, and dancing with some potential numbers for a clearer picture about potential as we learn more.

Anyone? ... Beuhler? ...

jmho