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Message: Don't believe it

Don't believe it

posted on Nov 07, 2007 06:30PM
Can't believe some people are happy about this pp. To start all SGR did in its first statement was name drop:

"San Gold Corporation (TSX VENTURE:SGR) (the "Company") is pleased to announce that it has entered into a letter of engagement with Dundee Securities Corporation and a syndicate of underwriters, including Cormark Securities Inc. and GMP Securities L.P. (the "Underwriters"), under which the Underwriters have agreed to purchase on a bought deal private placement basis 17,900,000 units (the "Units") of San Gold at a price of $1.40 per Unit for total gross proceeds to the Company of $25,060,000."

How much did Dundee, Cormack, and GMP securities take? For all we know they took 1000 shares a piece as an example and the unknown sydicate of underwriters took the rest. Not much confidence there.

Our newest best of buds paid almost exactly what the company is worth with this new dilution.

17,900,000 shares of the initial offering
8,950,000 warrant shares
716,000 4% brokers warrants
-----------
27,566,000 new shares.Add these to total outstanding since June 30/07 (203,566,000 shares) gives you 231,136,340 fully diluted.

27,566,000/231,136,340= 11.93% dilution. Multiply this by our closing price of $1.54 and then subtract it from the same $1.54 gives you a sp of $1.36. I'm sure they would have hit closer to $1.4 if the market didn't go into a funk today. So at this dilution this is what the big boys think we are worth. AHH grasshopper it even gets more interesting. Management is getting as sneaky as Winnipeg's mayor. The underwriters can draw on an additional 10,725,000 shares at $1.4 strike price on or before Nov 23/07, diluting us further.

"Under the agreement, the Underwriters have an option, exercisable at any time on or before the second business day prior to the closing date, to purchase up to an additional 10,725,000 Units for approximately $15 million in additional gross proceeds."

So, lets do this little exercise again, shall we.

17,900,000 shares from initial offering
8,950,000 warrant shares
10,725,000 additional shares
1,145,000 4% brokers warrants
-----------
38,720,000 new shares. Add these to the total outstanding (203,570,340) for a new fully diluted total of 242,290,340 shares.

38,720,000/242,290,340=15.98% dilution. Here's where it gets really interesting. We went up to $1.66 today. What if the offered sp for the pp was set relative to our highest sp of the day or they all thought SGR would run a little today and close at $1.66 either way.Take 15.98% multiply it by $1.66 this gives you $0.265. Subtract $0.265 from $1.66 and you get $1.395.

Unless my math is wrong either way you look at it the big boys feel that this company at this dilution is worth $1.40. Can someone explain why we are going up tomorrow? More exploration results maybe? Sgr stock is no different than the American dollar. They keep printing more for additional financing. Criticism is not only appreciated but expected.

Cheers

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Nov 07, 2007 07:20PM
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Nov 07, 2007 07:40PM
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