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Dear Agoracom Family,

I want to thank all of you for your patience with us over the past 48 hours and apologize for what was admittedly a botched launch of our new site.

As you can see, we have reverted back to the previous version of the site while we address multiple forum functionality flaws that inexplicably made their way into the launch.

To this end:

1.We have identified 8 fundamental but easily fixable flaws that will be corrected in the coming week, so that you can continue to use the forums exactly as you've been accustomed to.

2.Additionally we will also be implementing a couple of design improvements to "tighten up" the look and feel of the forums.

Sincerely,

George et al

Message: This should help move gold

Looming China debt crisis resurfaces as a market fear

October 23, 2013, 3:46 PM
Bloomberg

Equities around the world got dinged and the yen jumped Wednesday after Chinese money-market rates spiked and a Bloomberg story said China’s biggest banks had tripled debt write-offs. So, what is going on?

First off, the debt write-offs. According to the Bloomberg report, filings show that Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. and its four main rivals wrote off 22.1 billion yuan ($3.65 billion) of debt in the first six months of the year that couldn’t be collected. That compares to 7.65 billion yuan a year earlier. Still, that didn’t hurt profits, which hit a record $76 billion thanks in part to provisions that were previously set aside when those loans started to sour, the report said.

Meanwhile, China’s primary short-term money rate rose sharply Wednesday, a move that Reuters attributed to signs regulators are thinking about tightening liquidity in order to keep inflation at bay.

The most dramatic action came in the currency markets overnight, with the yen catching a haven bid. The dollar got a little bit of a rise, as well, but the bulk of the action came on the Australian dollar/yen AUDJPY +0.20% and New Zealand dollar/yen crosses NZDJPY +0.30% , with the Aussie down 1.7% versus the yen at 93.59 yen and the kiwi off 2.3% at 81.62 yen.

“Given concerns earlier this year about the Chinese shadow banking sector it would appear that the acknowledgement that there is a problem and Chinese authorities are starting to deal with it has seen some investors take some money off the table in case there are a lot more provisions to come,” said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets in London.

He’s referring to long-simmering fears that past lending by China’s “shadow banks”–a mix of trusts, insurers, leasing firms, pawnbrokers and others–may have set the stage for a debt crisis as growth begins to slow. According to The Wall Street Journal, the country’s central bank had engineered a cash crunch, which sent interbank lending rates jumping in June, as part of an effort to tame shadow lending.

It’s no wonder officials and investors are keeping a close eye on the situation.

“A major hit to the Chinese banking sector is likely to have massive ramifications across the G-20 universe and could have a deflationary impact on global growth. Little wonder then that Aussie saw so much selling pressure in overnight trade as it will likely suffer the most from any drop off in Chinese demand,” said Boris Schlossberg, managing director of FX strategy at BK Asset Management.

U.S. stocks closed about 0.5% lower, weighed by disappointing earnings including a big miss by Caterpillar Inc. CAT -0.20% as well as the China worries. The Shanghai Composite CN:SHCOMP lost 1.2%, alongside losses elsewhere in Asia.

–William L. Watts

Q

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