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Message: FYI > Is market dreaming of $45 oil?

FYI > Is market dreaming of $45 oil?

posted on Oct 15, 2008 09:09AM

Is market dreaming of $45 oil?

David Berman, today at 10:21 AM EDT

The second biggest question among Canadian investors – after, Have we seen the market bottom? – is: Has the decline in energy stocks overshot the decline in the price of oil?

The answer seems to be yes. Market Blog looked at four Canadian energy producers and one U.S. producer and found that in all but one case the shares are trading at levels last seen when oil was far cheaper than it is today.

Talisman Energy Inc. is the most extreme case. Its share price has tumbled 39 per cent this year, to a level last seen in January 2005. Back then, oil traded at just $45 (U.S.) a barrel – or about $30 less than the $75 a barrel it traded at on Wednesday morning. In other words, the market is either building in another sharp slide in energy prices, or has overshot the price of oil in a big way.

EnCana Corp. and Suncor Energy Inc. have seen their shares fall 29 per cent and 51 per cent, respectively, this year, taking the stocks back to levels not seen since June 2005. Then, oil traded at $60 – or $15 less than Wednesday's price. Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. has fallen 28 per cent this year, taking the price back to August 2005. Then, oil traded at $65 a barrel.

Finally, Exxon Mobil Corp. is trading in line with the price of oil. The shares have fallen 27 per cent this year, taking the price back to July 2006. Then, oil traded at $75 a barrel – or exactly where it is trading now.



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