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Message: So what do we know?

So what do we know?

posted on Feb 04, 2010 04:59PM

We know that Kinross needs Teryl's ore, and quite badly.

We know that the JV expires in May 2011, and with Kinross being on the ropes in terms of gold production at a hugely capable mill with Fort Knox, this is the absolute latest this would drag on for. Any talks of them renewing the JV agreement are in my opinion, total BS and simply NOISE.

We can surmise that Kinross' first bid was passed by our management only as a low ball, which was obviously rejected on a few grounds, the first and foremost being the rumoured offer price of .30 cents per share.

We know that John Robertson is a hard-nosed well-weathered guy, and wants .90 cents to $1.00 per share for all the properties under Teryl.

So we have our low-ball, .30 cents, and our high-end, $1.00. Now obviously, the deal eventually made will fall in between these two points, somewhere.

We know that drilling resumes in April, and presumably, and also suggested by Kinross' employees themselves, that they will take another run at Teryl during this time - which makes sense, why would they not? Why would they spend money drilling only to increase the eventual buyout price? Kinross knows what is in the ground, as evidenced by the plan of infill & extension drilling, only.

So, how is Kinross going to obtain the property? Here are the routes they can take:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hostile_bid

We know that to achieve a "friendly" takeover, Kinross is going to have to present management with a .90-$1.00 bid which they would approve, and then recommend shareholders also approve. I highly doubt this is the avenue they are going to take, they will not simply go from .30 cents to $1.00 because John says so. Even at $1.00, or $65 MIL, which is peanuts to Kinross a $13 BIL company, they will still try and get the best possible deal for their shareholders as they should.

The only avenue I see coming, and it will come as a blindside, will be a hostile takeover bid, in which Kinross will offer "X" amount of money per share with a deadline for shareholders to tender to the offer. A first rejection is usually met with an increased offer, usually titled as the "final offer". During this time, the acquiring company will begin accumulating huge piles of stock, as the "floor" of the stock is raised and shareholders begin dumping into the bids, unwilling to wait for the "end game". These shares acquired are then piled on to the "YES" vote to any deal made, increasing the chances of a successful takeover as the share price rises. This is where it gets exciting and requires nerves of steel.

One only has to look at the tape action on the recent takeover of FWR to understand how the frenzy escalates.

I guess we all have to ask ourselves, what do we want?...

I pretty much have no doubt this is what is coming down the pipe over the next few months, and am placing my bets accordingly.

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Feb 05, 2010 02:22AM
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