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Here is part of a report today from Zacks............Liz

Our Updated Outlook / Financial Model

As noted, when we initiated coverage of Verisante in February our financial model incorporated the assumption that Aura would be priced at CDN $30k (which was the figure used in Verisante's investor presentation at the time). Based on the feedback that management has received relative to pricing, we feel CDN $30k may be conservative and have updated our model with the assumption that Aura sells for CDN $45k instead - which is still more conservative than the CDN $60k that was mentioned would not be an unrealistic price point for Aura. Depending on where demand / price shakes out when Aura launches, we will update our model again.

Our forecasted launch timelines remain unchanged as does our estimated unit sales (of both Aura and the endcaps) and gross margins. We look for Verisante to gain Health Canada regulatory approval and CE Marking by the current year-end and model Verisante to begin generating revenue through sales of Aura in Canada, Europe and Australia beginning in 2012 - which is also unchanged from our initial expectations. We are very encouraged by the progress Verisante has made to-date relative to commercialization of Aura and continue to be highly positive on the company.

Increasing the assumed price point for Aura had the effect of moving our revenue estimates for 2012, 2013 and 2014 (the latest year we model) from CDN $3.8MM, $15.6MM and $36MM to CDN $5.4MM, $21.2MM and $48.3MM currently. We have also made some adjustments to projected operating expenses and share count outstanding. The net result was EPS in 2012, 2013 and 2014 moving from CDN ($0.05), $0.05 and $0.18 to CDN ($0.05) - unchanged, $0.07 and $0.20 currently.

Valuation - Raising Price Target

We continue to value Verisante using 25x our 2014 EPS estimate and discounting this back at 20% per year. With our 2014 EPS estimate moving from CDN $0.18 to $0.20 our valuation for Verisante has moved from approximately $2.25/share to $2.60/share (U.S.$ / CDN $ exchange rate remains at approximately 1/1). While the stock is up 97% since our February initiation, with the shares currently trading at $0.77, we continue to believe the stock is undervalued and are maintaining our Outperform rating on Verisante.

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Sep 23, 2011 11:44AM
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