I was rtying to wrap my head around the $14 billion dollar purchase of 50% of enzalutimde and how this might relate to zen3694 at this stage. From what I can gather it seems that enzalutimide was one of the standard of care drugs of care for mCRPC for about 4 years before Pfizer bought.

Please have a look and let me know if I am wrong.

GLTA

Toinv

Zenith thoughts

I’ve been curious about enzalutimide since Pfizer bought Medivation for $14 billion. My understanding is this is for 50% and Astella still holds 50%. For those that know please confirm or correct me on this.
 
So I’ve been trying to use this information to develop a timeline for the potential of the zen3694 trial.
 
So in very brief terms;

1. 1.      Medivation started the phase lll trial called AFFIRM in Sept, 2009.
2. 2.      The trial was stopped 2 years later in Nov 2011 by a DSMB recommendation because they found that enzalutimide extended the life expectancy of patients with mCRPC by 5 months.
3. 3.      FDA approval was given 10 months later in August 2012.
4. 4.      Pfizer buys Medivation in August 2016.

So zen3694 started dosing in June of 2016. The 3 x 3 trial will continue through 2017. Let us suppose there are extremely positive results and a good safety profile by the end of this year.

Since this is such a small trial I will assume they will have to move to large trials (please correct me if I am wrong) and these will take years to complete.

Lets guess that a large trial would take at least 2 years. That puts us out to the end of 2019 or early 2020. Then, if the FDA rushes things it puts us at the end of 2020 for approval and then probably months or a year to actually get to market.
 
I was hoping that a company like Pfizer would take note of the research. Perhaps with very strong results in the current trial they may begin to pay attention at some point in time.

One thing to note is that Pfizer did not buy Medivation until 4 years after FDA approval.

So I think we have a very long wait ahead of us.

Zenith has been silent. Is this good or bad. Perhaps early results are not positive...hence the silence. Or, as has been speculated on Agora, there may be a big deal in the works.

Anyway, I'm just thinking out loud. Anything can happen. Very high risk and potential high reward.
GLTA
Toinv