The news that the US Environmental Protection Agency has abandoned a two-year investigation into claims of groundwater contamination in the town of Pavillion, Wyoming, allegedly caused by shale gas drilling, has dealt yet another blow to the case against developing the Karoo’s potential gas reserves.
It joins many previous claims that collapsed under closer examination, such as the infamous claim that drinking water in Dimock, Pennsylvania was polluted. The Pavillion case would have been the first involving actual traces of chemicals used in the hydraulic fracturing process. Without it, conclusive evidence of systematic problems that would make drilling for shale gas inadvisable, remains elusive.
Initial fears sparked by environmental activists raised a great deal of caution among South African regulators, leading to the imposition of a moratorium by minerals and energy affairs minister, Susan Shabangu. That moratorium was lifted late last year, and the government is currently in the process of developing regulations under which exploration licences can be issued to the main applicants to drill for shale gas in South Africa.
Several local conferences involving scientists, regulators and industry engineers have hashed out many of the concerns, and brought to light numerous new technologies that will make the process even safer than the practice in the US.
America’s shale gas boom has contributed to electricity prices that are among the lowest in the world, while prices in other rich-world countries, many of which prefer to invest in renewable sources, have risen relentlessly. Natural gas has displaced coal as the US’s dominant source of power, leading to much lower pollution levels, and greenhouse gas emissions that have fallen to levels last seen in the early 1990s, even without having signed the Kyoto protocol.
Drilling for shale gas involves sinking wells to carbon-rich shale layers several kilometres below the surface, and far below deepest known fresh groundwater, after which sophisticated sensing equipment guides the drill horizontally along the methane-bearing rock, which is then fractured under hydraulic pressure to release the trapped gas.
Advances in underground sensing technology have significantly improved the success rate of drilling operations, while reducing the risk of striking fault lines or other geological features that could risk well productivity, earth tremors, and groundwater pollution. Academics from South Africa’s top universities have expressed hope that some geophysics graduates can find employment in this burgeoning sector.
Meanwhile, water treatment and recycling improvements have significantly reduced the need for production water, as well as the amount of waste water that needs treatment or safe disposal afterwards. Licence applicants say they are now able to use brackish water drawn from deep aquifers, or even sea water. Either way, they claim they will not compete with Karoo residents for surface or groundwater, and may even leave the Karoo with more water than when they started.
The reliability of well casings has also been raised as a potential concern, but the national regulator, the Petroleum Agency of South Africa, has indicated that it is aware of technical advances in so-called “self-healing” cement developed for the industry. This material, which is used in addition to multiple casings of centimetre-thick steel, swells when exposed to liquid in order to seal gaps between well sleeving and surrounding rocks, as well as sealing cracks that appear over time in the cement itself, making it exceptionally durable, even long after old wells are abandoned.
Meanwhile, non-toxic additive formulations have been developed that can replace the more hazardous chemicals usually used to prevent corrosion, improve lubricity and keep sand in suspension during the hydraulic fracturing process. Local drilling companies have committed to disclosing all chemical additives used in the fracturing process.
The DA, which will oversee the process in the Western Cape, remains split internally, but its support for shale gas will hinge on meeting conditions such as these. Other provincial governments have expressed a desire to press ahead with exploration, although it seems unlikely that exploration licences will be issued before the end of this year.
Kallie Erasmus, a long-time environmental lawyer and activist, told a debate audience in the Karoo that South Africa’s environmental legislation is robust, and that if opponents are correct in their claims, exploration will demonstrate this beyond any doubt. Conversely, environmental activists would be standing in the way of a potentially rich source of clean energy.
The exploration process will take anything between three years and a decade, and will serve to complete the research into the Karoo’s specific geology, both for the benefit of the drilling companies themselves, and for environmental authorities who will use the information to keep regulations current and set the conditions that companies must meet to develop this rich resource safely.
For South Africa’s industry and consumers, burdened with expensive, unreliable and even rationed electricity, a plentiful domestic supply of natural gas will raise productivity, reduce costs and stimulate employment. SA’s world-leading synthetic fuel industry will benefit from new export opportunities, while Eskom will enjoy a broader energy mix to improve the resilience of the country’s energy supply while renewable sources remain under development.
Perhaps most importantly, far from harming the Karoo, even conservative economic estimates show clearly that a shale gas industry will offer significant relief to a region that is plagued by deep poverty and high unemployment. Such an outcome, at the cost of small and manageable risks, is understandably appealing to the country’s more progressive and less fearful people and policy makers.
