Falcon is a global energy company with projects in Hungary, Australia & South Africa

Developing large acreage positions of unconventional and conventional oil and gas resources

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Message: Re:Karoo - Wanna Frack? -- TenSleep
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Jul 16, 2013 10:09PM

I am a bit more positive about John Craven and Philip O'Quigley's longer term goals. Their current plan of proving up the resources and then selling out to the JV partner - in that particular property - makes a great deal of sense to me. If we look at the Beach Aussie deal with Chevron as a guide, (this is the red line that Philip highlighted in his spring presentations across Canada) then Falcon would look to sell their share of the Beetaloo at somewhere around $800 acre. If our new JV deal for the Beetaloo has something closer to a 55%/45% split with someone like Chevron - then Falcon's 45% share of the approximate $5.6 billion valuation for the entire Beetaloo would equal $2.5 billion dollars.

Instead of being an oil and gas producer, which would require Falcon to come up with their 45% share of "all" the drilling and production costs, the current board thinks that selling out their position in Australia for $2.5 billion and moving on to the Karoo and Mako would be strategically much smarter. There is the potential for a 10 + bagger with Australia, under this scenerio, as well as the potential for a something similar in the Karoo and possibly half of that for the Mako. So not a 50 bagger as you were hoping for, but longer term maybe a shot at 20 -25 times the current share price without having to incur the enormous expenses of a production company.

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