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Message: Renewable Energy Mostly Unaffected by Credit Crunch

Theres a number of reasons outside of oil you should look at when getting into APV:

  • Silicon prices are expected to drop rapidly because of additional capacity coming on board later this year and early next year. It's been cut nearly in half because of rapidly declining margins.


  • Lower silicon prices will lead to lower product prices, and the crowded field will get thinned out as some of the smaller players are unable to match the scale of the big boys. I thus don't expect margins to drop as fast as many analysts are expecting in the medium term. Suntech Power's results this week are a good example.


  • The larger companies, the survivors, will continue dropping prices in lock step with silicon price declines, which will, in turn, support the long-term cost-benefit comparisons with conventional energy sources.


  • Utilities are in the early stages of their next upgrade cycle, with regulatory pressures almost certainly set to accelerate toward the renewable sources of energy.


  • Regardless of what analysts say, U.S. solar subsidies are not going away anytime soon, no matter who the president is. In this hot political season, look for the alternative-energy subsidies to get much more attention. Meanwhile, Europeans will stay in love with alternative energy, regardless of economic conditions or what happens to the housing market in Spain.


  • If coal prices keep rising, power-grid parity is not too far away. That should also accelerate demand for solar.


Anyway, that's just my 5 cents' worth. Make your own decisions.

Good Luck to you all.

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