Since it is the weekend, I will add a few comments here re. Egypt. These are not scientific by any means. I have never been there (yet), and I have never studied the political and religious aspects of the region in any depth. However, I am dating an Egyptian girl with very close connections to that country even though she now lives in Canada permanently. I've been getting a lot of interesting insight these past few days. She's been glued to the TV and talking to numerous relatives in Cairo and elsewhere (via landline, since they're all cut off on the internet and via cell).

I asked her today how this could spread further throughout northern Africa and/or the Middle East. She said that Lebanon is currently in turmoil although not to the same extent and not getting the same coverage, and she also feels that Algeria and Jordan have some risk. I am uncertain as to exactly why this is the case with each of the three countries.

I believe that while elements of agitation probably are being encouraged by outside forces, it is more likely that this is predominantly a demonstration against the presiding rule in Egypt. Mubarak was only supposed to be in term for six months after Sedat, I believe, and that was because nobody expected him to have the political strength to engineer an extension of that term. I think it is probably safe to assume that the Mubarak government's history is the primary cause of tension, rather than ethnocentric or ideological sources, since [I think] both muslims and christians were protesting together when this all started.

I didn't think that oil was a big part of the Egyptian economy, but I just did a quick internet search and it appears that Egypt produces about 2m bpd, which is certainly not insignificant. However, their reserves were not listed on any of the lists of major oil producing countries that I saw. Perhaps they haven't over-inflated their reserves like most of the other OPEC members.

The Suez is important. I believe that a significant volume flows through there. That has got to be making some people nervous.

In terms of the current situation, she thinks that tomorrow will mark a turning point. Apparently (from her cousins in Egypt, not from the news) the army has standing orders to shoot anyone in the streets starting tomorrow. So either the situation will be brought under control, or more likely, all heck will break loose. Currently, Mubarak stands strong because he has the strength of the armed forces behind him. But if even one general turns, then it's over for him. It's a good thing that they have arms control there or the situation would be far, far uglier right now than it is. It's not pretty, but at least they've mostly been throwing rocks around, not engaged in firefights.

I'll try to find out more tomorrow. She's gone to bed already tonight.