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Crystallex International Corporation is a Canadian-based gold company with a successful record of developing and operating gold mines in Venezuela and elsewhere in South America

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Message: Re: Buy the news...sell the rumor?
2
Jul 05, 2010 06:43PM

EZ.....I agree with you that without the permit KRY has nothing except more dilution/finance to keep the lights on.

But, and I pose this question to the entire board, why do you see an "aggressive shareprice increase with the release of the permit"?

In my mind such an increase could only come if a huge pool of new investors started chasing the stock. These need to be people who aren't jaded by the long miserable rectal exam history of this company and its adventure in the jungles of Chavezland.

These new investors need to be ignorant of the fact that, even with a permit or contract in hand, companies like GRZ and many others, have had their property and other assets stolen from them by Chavez and his goons.

In order to get these new investors KRY would have to get a lot of TV promotion by the likes of Jim Cramer (who was badly burned by this stock before) Or MarketWatch's Tom Calandra who lost his job related to this stock.

In order for KRY to aggressively shoot up this stock would, once again, have to become an emotional retail buyer investment. I don't see that happening....not much above a dollar if even that.

But, I believe, you are correct regarding the pro's.

The pro's buy based on the math, which means: why chase the stock?

As each new benchmark is reached: JV, permit, shovels turning dirt, etc, (all things being equal) the stock should creep up over time (years). But I don't see a skyrocket on the granting of the permit because the pro's know they can nibble at this stock for months until they get the amount they want in their portfolios.

The other big hairy monkey wrench is, of course, Chavez, the fact that Ven is falling apart, and the still "ain't making no profit" gold sale problem.

Until those issues are resolved, or at least stablized, I'm not even sure the pro's will get involved with this stock because there is easier more reliable money to be made elsewhere.

I'd love to be wrong and sell this stock way higher than my $1 break even but I''m in it for the long haul, (as I've always been) because I do expect it to creep up as LC nears production. Patterns show that it's just before mine production begins that anticipation of rewards pushes a gold stock to it's near peak.

I'm sure some here will see me as being negative again but please explain why I'm wrong this time.

(The factors that would change my beliefs are the removal of Chavez or the rumors of a complete buyout by the Chinese or some other outside gold major)

Cividale

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