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Dec 13, 2018 02:35PM

You can guess at the NAV looking at the 2 analyst reports, one from Roth and the other from Makalu.

The Roth analyst puts a $10 target, with a 60% chance of success.  However, he has put zero value on the chronic kidney disease and other indications.   So that would suggest a $16 share price just from the Phase 3 trial.  Assuming he is playing the usual games that analysts play, he will most likely jack up his target price by reducing his discount rate which is currently at 12%, down to say 8% on a successful Phase 3.  That would suggest the C$16 goes to C$20.  

The Roth analyst has put a zero value on Chronic Kidney Disease as an indication.  However, if Phase 3 is a success, then automatically, CKD suddenly has tremendous value.  How much?  THe Roth analyst shows $1.8 billion in sales from 2025 going to $5.5 billion in 2029.  It is always hard to put real values on such large numbers in 7 to 11 years time...so I will assume that the value is at least $2 billion more.  That translates to another C$10 of value to the share price.

Adding these 2 values, we get to C$30 as a fair value, as implied by the Roth analyst. At C$30, that would translate to US$5 billion.

Looking at the Makalu analyst report, he has a very interesting comparison with Humira.  Turns out that Humira would have been worth $4 billion back in 2002, at the very launch of the drug.  The Makalu analyst does not show us exactly how he calculated his NAV, but he also gets to C$30.

Now neither of them truly capture the royalty structure to Zenith.  However, it is interesting that both get to C$30...Makalu directly, while Roth implicitly.

At C$30, you get to US$5 billion implied value of Resverlogix, and therefore of Phase 3.

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