Re: No love
in response to
by
posted on
Dec 13, 2018 04:44PM
You can guess at the NAV looking at the 2 analyst reports, one from Roth and the other from Makalu.
The Roth analyst puts a $10 target, with a 60% chance of success. However, he has put zero value on the chronic kidney disease and other indications. So that would suggest a $16 share price just from the Phase 3 trial. Assuming he is playing the usual games that analysts play, he will most likely jack up his target price by reducing his discount rate which is currently at 12%, down to say 8% on a successful Phase 3. That would suggest the C$16 goes to C$20.
The Roth analyst has put a zero value on Chronic Kidney Disease as an indication. However, if Phase 3 is a success, then automatically, CKD suddenly has tremendous value. How much? THe Roth analyst shows $1.8 billion in sales from 2025 going to $5.5 billion in 2029. It is always hard to put real values on such large numbers in 7 to 11 years time...so I will assume that the value is at least $2 billion more. That translates to another C$10 of value to the share price.
Adding these 2 values, we get to C$30 as a fair value, as implied by the Roth analyst. At C$30, that would translate to US$5 billion.
Looking at the Makalu analyst report, he has a very interesting comparison with Humira. Turns out that Humira would have been worth $4 billion back in 2002, at the very launch of the drug. The Makalu analyst does not show us exactly how he calculated his NAV, but he also gets to C$30.
Now neither of them truly capture the royalty structure to Zenith. However, it is interesting that both get to C$30...Makalu directly, while Roth implicitly.
At C$30, you get to US$5 billion implied value of Resverlogix, and therefore of Phase 3.