...We Welcome You To The Resverlogix HUB withIn The AGORACOM COMMUNITY!

Free
Message: Breaking down the Webcast

paladin, I truly appreciate your Sherlock Holmes decomposition of the webcast and I agree with much of it. Your analysis is precise and helpful. But perhaps you give too much credit to Don and his team. Be that as it may...............

Your decomposition reminds me of posts I was doing on SH 5 years ago. I think both Dr Wong and Don are dissappointed on one hand but quite satisfied on the other for the following reasons. Had BoM succeeded they could both cash out (with enormous rewards) and continue to pursue their life's passions.

But given the failure of BoM life continues in a very rewarding manner for both Don and Dr Wong and the team. Don indicated the 70% group will continue to support RVX (they have no choice). Don will continue for another year paying himself $700,000 plus/year and enjoy raising money. That has been his ethos for 20 years and must drive his adrenalin. I give him credit because he has kept the ship afloat and that is remarkable for a small Calgary based biotech. Congratulations Don!

Dr Wong, is a scientist, endorcronologist and medical doctor. He seems to be a very successful scientist with many publications and seems to be a passionately curious researcher. He will get to continue figuring out the science of apabetalone and other RVX  and Zenith compounds. I can't speak for him but if I had those brains I'd like to spend my time working on those types of problems.

This is still a science company...not a business in terms of culture...i.e. raise money...do science. Had they lucked out on BoM then they would need to bring in the business people.

I do believe they are an honest and bright team and there seems to be a ton of science on their side. However from my perspective as a non scientist I'm trying to get my head around the idea that apabetalone has many statistically significant impacts on 6 systems (complement, reverse cholesterol transport, inflammation, etc) and from previous trial post hoc analysis (i.e. not pre-specified, but exploratory) seems to reduce 5 pt MACE with no reliable samples (numbers) on 3 point MACE. So, there is a big gap in the equation to reduction of 3 pt MACE even though the sample of patients was highly targetted for success - low HDL, DM and CVD. Perhaps a larger sample or longer trial would have yielded significance in 3 pt MACE reduction.

When Don says "data,data,data" I interprete this as long term continued research. The implication for this is that there is something important in this science yet to be discovered. It is very exciting IMHO but not from an investment POV.

Now, what is my hope? - I truly hope that there will be a very high level of statistical and functional significance in one of the pre-spectified subgroups, significant enough to get apabetalone to FDA and EU approval and to market. Perhaps there are reasons why regional deals have not been happening. Perhaps there are reasons why BP seems to be sitting on the sidelines other than what I thought were Don's high share price demands and the conservative character nature of BP? Investors have hundreds if not thousands of places to put their money.

Do I think that will happen? - I have absolutely no idea and no way to develop a reasoned approach to developing a guess given the top line failure. If the CI is 94.9, perhaps. I don't have a clue.

What is my hope -  I hope the rosuvastaton hypothesis is successful.

Just getting thoughts out of my head. Thanks again paladin.

GLTA

Toinv

 

 

Share
New Message
Please login to post a reply