Re: Comments on the AGM
posted on
Nov 09, 2019 02:00PM
golf ... compelling rationale. I don't disagree. Hopefully we can attain that type of confidence within the market that a company like Biogen commands when it "looks" like they (and we) are onto something.
I really don't worry or get whipped up too much about the market reaction to a relative unknown like RVX, because I think the real value is going to be with a BP buyer recognizig the value here wayyy beofre the market does.
So yeah ... if Cognition looks really good, but we are STILL 2-4 years away from a P3 validaing further, the value will go up, but will it skyrocket prior to a P3 result? Maybe, maybe not? But a BP may think it is a home run coming, along with the other data and be more willing to "approach' that value att a discounted rate which takes away the risk to RVX at a level that makes the "bird in hand" worth eliminating the risk of a P3 result?
Everybody will have a LOT more information re the clinicals, realistic market potential, timing/cost/risk to market, and the FDA positioning in mid December!
I do agree with you if everything looks really promising in mid December, then 6b is a really good deal for a BP "potentially" ... but still a LOT of dough for RVX and investors, a lot to walk away from as a "sure thing" with risk still looming? So, hopefully there would be multiple BP's bidding up the buy out number higher and higher, especially as risk declines?
How much value is enough as an RVX investor, versus time and waiting, and risk? ... versus taking a deal and a sure thing at some point?
Obviously, i don't have the same info as Don does, nor any knowledge of the tone and tenor of BP discussions ... the next month is going to be VERY exciting!