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Message: Re: 4-8b guess - Is someone asking too much?
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Dec 08, 2019 08:38PM
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Dec 08, 2019 10:14PM
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Dec 08, 2019 10:22PM

Just a thought I was rolling over in my brain....and I think it has some merit.  

Let's assume that Apabetalone on its own has a pipeline value of $4 billion USD.  And with that let's also assume that any BP acquiring it would eventually see a huge ROI on its acquisition.  One might legitmately ask: "Why hasn't a BP acquired it yet then"????  

I might have an answer....tell me what you think.

So I'm Pfizer, or Sanofi or Merck or whoever....and I hand Resverlogix $4 billion USD and acquire Apabetalone.  How everything ends up structured with RPS and HLink is too involved for me to go chasing down rabbitt holes, but let's just say when everything is said and done Apabetalone is in the hands of BP and Resverlogix has we'll say $3 billion USD left when all the dust settles.

Now what does Resverlogix do with all that cash and no pipeline in development.  Someone coined the term 'Star Factory'...I think its obvious they start getting to work on the follow on compounds we've heard about.  How much Do Re Mi does it take to develop a drug?  Three or four hundred million maybe?  With even just $2 or $3 billion on the balance sheet Resverlogix could start developing more than one, no longer having all its eggs in one basket.  

If you're a BP how are you going to feel about a company that already has a huge head start in epigenetics, but hamstrung by a lack of cash....how are you going to feel about handing over a huge sum of money, money that could end up being used to develop drugs that likely will end up competeing with the drugs in your own pipeline.

So why not buy the whole shooting match?  Then the question is what kind of money would DM be looking for.  If a BP comes along and offers $10 billion.....with follow on compounds and an epigenetic data base that conceivably could be worth $100s of billions....Would Don consider that to be 'giving it away'?  

Just the thoughts I was having this weekend....

 

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Dec 09, 2019 01:01AM
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Dec 09, 2019 02:15AM
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