I agree that the oil prices will be a major factor. IMO, low oil prices will help jump start our climb out of the hole we are seeing today. It may not get us all the way back, but it will allow for some relief to the millions of small business owners who have been beaten over the head. It also helps take some of the pressure off retailers who are seeing "fuel surcharges" which can add 10% to 20% to your finished goods price.

In my case, an average student guitar which sold for $250 is now $300+ with a smaller margin for the retailer. These are popular price points for the bulk of the US. I won't bore anyone with retail price point rules, but that does take a pile of consumers our of the market, especially during the Christmas Season when budgets are more likely to be employed due to the need to buy multiple gifts.

I don't know if the addition of the EU countries to our oil and credit pain was calculated, but certainly foreseen by the powers that be. OPEC will react to be sure, but they run the real risk of slumping demand where they can least afford it. Remember, Asian countries and South American countries have large tax credits for their home grown products and working class workers. The US and the EU choose to tax oil. We pay the full price + Uncle Sam's grease to build roads (so they say) and educate our kids (if that's what they call an education).

As for EDIG, I'm more in Kirk's camp. It is easier for me to believe the first settlement was not multiple millions of dollars. It is the validation that matters to me the most. I believe LL's point about manageing expectations is pointed. If wrong, it won't be very hard to be happy about it.

We won't have to wait long to see some glimpse of the settlement numbers. That's a good thing. My fingers crossed hope is for a breakeven or better Q report. IMO, that will spark interest.

John