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Message: Re: Keeping track of the price of lithium

Thanks, Pavel, for your comments.  It looks like, at least from this weeks action, that your belief that $14/Kg is not sustainable is probably on target, unfortunately.

I still like https://www.dailymetalprice.com/metalpricecharts.php#google_vignette

for a quick scan of lithium prices since it easily shows charts for 1 week action all the way up to 10 years action on the price of lithium per metric ton.  The chart provides a quick visual survey of where it has been and where it is going.  Right now it does appear to be headed downward through that $14/mtn ceiling.

I am still, foolishly perhaps, "hoping" that summer sales of EVs along with all of the technical improvements in lithium batteries, will combine to create a real positive increase in lithium demand.  That may easily turn out to be nothing but false hope.  

As for LAC and Thacker Pass, I would like to see up to date pictures of the actual construction progress out at Thacker Pass.

The 14 March 2024 update from the company on the LAC website did include the following statement:

 

  • "Mechanical completion of Thacker Pass Phase 1 is targeted for 2027 following a three-year construction period. Major construction is expected to commence in the second half of 2024 following the anticipated closing of the DOE Loan and issuance of FNTP."

I was still mired in the mud of previous statements about completing Thacker Pass construction in the year 2026.  Now I am "updated", unfortunately.

https://www.lithiumamericas.com/news/news-details/2024/Lithium-Americas-Provides-a-Thacker-Pass-Construction-Plan-Update/default.aspx

So saeth Jon Evans, CEO:

"“Our team has been focused on refining the development plan and de-risking construction execution of Phase 1 for Thacker Pass,” said Jonathan Evans, President and Chief Executive Officer of Lithium Americas. “We have de-risked execution by advancing detailed engineering and project planning. To date, we have completed all the early-works and infrastructure required for major construction, including excavating the processing plant areas. We anticipate issuing FNTP and commencing major construction shortly following the closing of the DOE Loan.”

Evans added, “In advancing Thacker Pass to production, we have an incredible opportunity to lead the next chapter of global electrification in a way that both strengthens our national security of critical materials and ensures that the economic benefits are directed toward American workers, companies and communities.”

Well, they secured the DOE Loan, so "major construction" should have already "commenced", eh?

Show me the pictures!!!

"The Company is currently focused on advancing detailed engineering, procurement and execution planning for the construction of Thacker Pass Phase 1. Detailed engineering is approximately 30% design complete to date, and the Company plans to continue to increase the level of detailed engineering in advance of issuing full notice to proceed (“FNTP”), which is expected in the second half of 2024."

So, where is this FNTP?  In fairness, to Jon Evans, it isn't quite the second half of 2024, but will the issuance of the FNTP be just another in the long line of Goal Post Moving or will it occur as scheduled?  Time will tell.  I hope they break the mold on this one and actually meet their projected schedule and we actually do see the FNTP in the second half of 2024.  Most likely if they do meet that schedule it will be on 31 December 2024.  Experienced LAC stock owners won't hold our collective breaths.

Just for the record, The March 2024 statement by LAC on its website currently lists the following schedule for construction of Thacker Pass:

PROJECT TIMELINE

Mechanical completion of Thacker Pass Phase 1 is targeted for 2027 following a three-year construction period. Major construction is expected to commence in the second half of 2024 following the anticipated closing of the DOE Loan and issuance of FNTP. The Company anticipates a commissioning and ramp-up period of six to twelve months, targeting achieving full capacity production in 2028.

Tattoo that statement on the back of your arm, LAC investors, so that you never forget where the Goal Post has been planted by Official Lithium Americas Projections as of March 2024.  Let's just wait and see if THIS Goal Post gets moved like all the other ones have been in the past.  If Lithium prices on the world market continue in a South bound direction then I can easily forsee that another Goal Post movement closer in proximation to 2030 will somehow transmogrify today's 2027 projection without the slightest degree of embarrasment by LAC management.  

 

The May 2024 Corporate Presentation can be accessed via the following link:

https://lithiumamericas.com/investor/events-and-presentations/default.aspx

 

Onward through the FOG and the Foggy Schedule Projections, eh?

Okiedo

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