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Message: Re: Keeping track of the price of lithium

Yup, JD, she is the Female version of the Phoenix.  If LAC is the lithium mining version of the Phoenix then we must be currently in the ashes, eh?  I would say that is a pretty good description of where we sit right now.  If that analogy holds then things can't get any worse, right?  Well, not exactly.

I am not sure that we won't eventually see a $12,000 range for metric ton of lithium.  Not that I am wishing to see that, just the opposite.

I would like to understand better what is driving this nose dive for the price of lithium.  The quality of lithium coming out of China, the lithium being mined there, is not good.  Hard rock mining in Australia has its own problems.  Lithium consumption in the field of transportation has to be going up in absolute terms and when you consider the negative effect on profit for all existing companies that actually do mine lithium in respect to the fall in lithium price, some of them, if not nearly all of them, would seem to have to cut back on either further exploration or production output or both and as those two features decrease that should help bring back up the price of lithium.

If you look at what OPEC does with oil as its commodity they just cut production when the price per barrel gets to low in their perception and it isn't long before the price per barrel goes back up. Russian production would be an outlier to that simplistic version, but because they are in a military and political very difficult situation they have to go begging with open hands for a market at any price so I don't consider them in the same fashion as OPEC.

Seems to my feeble mind that the same process should take place with lithium, but maybe it isn't that simple.  Another simple concept of mine is that existing lithium mines and lithium mines in development that are on the precipice of going into actual development should start to benefit as their competitors are removed from the battlefield, especially if they have lower production costs than most of their competitors and have a higher quality lithium source than most of their competitors.  LAC doesn't have the cheapest production costs, but they are way below "average" in that criteria and we will just have to wait and see in the final analysis where they fit regarding the quality of lithium being mined, but past statements seem to be optimistic in that regard.

Situation Normal:  Lots of FOG!

 

Okiedo

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