An even more certain prediction would be if you were to subtract from the physical gold at Ft Knox the net paper short position and escrow position of the US govt against that physical gold. Since the 1970's, the US govt/Fed has regarded part of normal monetary operations to short gold in the paper market. If it has to buy back back at a loss, too bad so sad, another few million onto the taxpayers tab. In a 6 trillion annual debt, with less than 900 billion of physical gold in all the central banks, the paper losses are a small price to pay to maintain the illusion. That is why many Gold Bugs advise holding only physical gold, because paper gold will produce a profit (or loss) but cannot be equated to physical gold. If buying a gold ETF, buy one that cannot be shorted , otherwise you simply contribute to the manipulation program. Escrow gold is physical gold that is double counted in the inventory of another public entity because they have a certificate backed by that same Ft Knox gold. As more and more investors see through the scheme, they are paying the premium for bullion, coins, and non-shortable gold-backed ETF's. We are extremely unlikely therefore to see US rules against naked shorting of gold backed funds.