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Message: Re: So.....?
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Oct 13, 2017 06:12PM
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Oct 14, 2017 08:24AM
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Oct 14, 2017 01:59PM
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Oct 14, 2017 02:29PM
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Oct 14, 2017 02:41PM
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Oct 14, 2017 02:44PM
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Oct 14, 2017 04:05PM

Great perspectives narmac.

I've been reading all of the great posts and looking at the numbers just gather my thoughts so I hope you don't mind that I'm posting (nothing new of course but perhaps a slightly different angle).

1) Financing - I'm assuming USD in all numbers although that is not clear from the release but either way the key is that all numbers are in the same currency.

  • Raised                         = $87.000,000
  • LOC with Citi                = $68,800,000
  • Accounts payable         = $12,000,000
  • Net funds available       = $6,200,000
  • Burn rate                     = $3,000,000/month

Thus approx 2 months of funding to cover admin and BOM, etc. These of course are very rough numbers. As many have pointed out, the implications are clear. While we don't know how long the BOM trial will take to complete but if we ASSUME it is complete in October of 2018 (there will surely be expenses after) there are about 13 months to fund less the 2 months funded by the HL $ at $3,000,000/month RVX needs at least $33,000,000 to complete BOM (approximately and if someone wants to criticise me then put in your own numbers)

If the other trials are to be funded the costs will go up.

Hence, as has been well covered Don needs to get "the deal" done SOON.

Could Hepalink's next move be to come back in with their own partner to complete the trial?

 

2) Changes in Share Structure with Hepalink Deal (excluding exercising or warrants)

  • Hepalink        - pre financing   = 12.74%                         post financing   = 42.86%
  • Eastern          - pre financing   = 19.35%                         post financing   = 12.67%
  • The balance    - pre financing   = 67.91%                         post financing   = 44.47%
  • Float size       - pre financing   = approx 114,600,000        post financing   = 175,040,756

So, as pointed out by others, this is a huge shift.

  • Will Hepalink demand a couple more seats on the board?
  • What kind of control can Hepalink demand?
  • Will this give Hepa more access to greater details of the IP developed by RVX?
  • Will Hepa now have much more influence on the "deal that Don has been working on"?
  • This also makes an interesting statement about Eastern (which was already evident when they drew their Dec 26th line in the sand) and that is that they (Eastern), while they retain the same number of shares, has made it clear as to the value they put on RVX and apabetalone at this stage. They are not taking any more risk. They will let someone else assume the risk.
  • If voting is required who will side with Hepalink?

 

3) Intellectual Property

  • It seems quite clear now that the rights to the IP have been now protected from Eastern. I bet Eastern is pleased about that as they seem to be slightly derisking their relationship with RVX (i.e they no longer have the Citi burden).
  • I've made the assumption that the IP rights are now controlled by RVX.
  • However, we do not know the details of the current deal with Hepalink. We only have the macro information and we do not know what other conditions or requirements are built in to this funding and we have no vote.
  • Hepa has offered up $87,000,000 pre the futility analysis. Either they are confident in apabetalone's success in BOM OR they've negotiated some sort of value protection in the event of an FA failure (e.g. ownership of the IP). However, if FA fails the stock will tank and Hepa can jump in and take RVX even cheaper than the current deal and they will have it all. The capital companies will take their loss and walk and Hepa will own a leading edge epigenetic scientific research company.

So I sure don't know what tricks Don has up his sleeve. I think his days are numbered and if the Chinese get control they will not be a friendly lot to deal with once they are inside.

On the share side, from my perspective, it is not so much the dliution that concerns me. I believe apabetalone will be a blockbuster with a massive market so there is tremendous upside on the share price. The issue for me now is the concentration of shares and power which has just become far more concentrated. China is a strategic country with a strong focus on innovation, copying and IP. I will not take this thought any further.

I'm extremely concerned with this deal because it shows that Don does not have options. Even Eastern didn't pony up. And yet I bought 2200 shares this week. I must be crazy. If the FA is successful then we have considerable time to wait for the success of BOM but at least with a positive FA Don can possibly work his way out of this Hepa control situation.

Anyway, pure speculations and observations. I'm sure I'll get flammed or have my knuckles whacked for this but perhaps it will stimulate other perspectives.

GLTA

Toinv    :)

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Oct 14, 2017 07:03PM
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Oct 15, 2017 08:05AM
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Oct 15, 2017 11:40AM
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Oct 15, 2017 02:40PM
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Oct 16, 2017 11:24AM
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