Re: R We 2 Low?
in response to
by
posted on
Jul 17, 2011 06:38PM
Keep in mind, the opinions on this site are for the most part speculation and are not necessarily the opinions of the company WITHOUT PREJUDICE
I've gone over that report many times, and also tried to search for an industry standard. I've had no luck. G&S called it a 32% scaling factor, when in actual fact, they were scaling it down to 32%, so really a 68% factor. Bottom line, we used to use the Ovoid formula which scaled it by 50%, now I go a little more and scale it by 68%, and do not include the Ovoid formula, so really it's only reducing the numbers by an additional 18%, just to stay conservative & consistent. Right or wrong, I don't know? But I always like to be low!
If people think any of the numbers are low, just plug in your own numbers, and see what kind of factor we might be out by?
Just remember, to get $133 per share, the following factors were used:
Personally, I'd say leave points 1, 3 & 4 alone, even though I know they are too conservative.
So, Point 2 lets say we double that (factor of 2 higher), and Point 5 lets also say we double that (another factor of 2 higher), that would then give you a factor of 4 higher, and IMO, we're still very conservative.
So, for you people with calculators, what is $133 X 4 = $??? per share (I'm not telling)
Bottom Line, do not think $20 or $30 per share is a fair value for your shares, even though, I must admit right now, it probably does look good. The only thing it'll be good for is to take a very small position off the table, and cover your costs (IMO)
We say it Over & Over:
Hold on to the Majority of your Shares for the Homerun!!