A month or two ago I posted something to the effect that buying into RVX was perhaps more of a gamble than an investment.  That was clearly an overstatement on my part because it does not take into consideration the many years of (considerable) science behind apabetalone, or the prior positive results (P1/P2) that has led to this P3 trial.  Further, given where we are now in this trial, we also need to consider the almost total absence of any safety issues, which is remarkable as this arguably is often a game-changer for many drugs under development (I’m guessing…?).  To wit, consider how many drug ads you see on TV that often equates taking those drugs to the potential risk of having a near death experience!  Apabetalone may have almost none of that.

So, buying into RVX at this stage could then be considered more of a ‘calculated risk’ than an outright gamble.  The other positive, and others would know this better than me, is overall success rate of obtaining FDA approval for drugs in P3 clinical trials, and especially at this stage of the trial.  So, if it walks like a duck, smells like a duck then perhaps it could conceivably be a duck.  That’s not to say it may not in fact be a duck, but if you’re making an investment in this stock based on a ‘calculated risk’ then I’ll go out on a limb and say the odds are probably in your favor.

If topline results are positive in tone and/or substance then chances are your current investment is, at the very least, safe.  Then I imagine for the 2 months or so after than we will all be wondering how much of an upside there might be based on what the numbers look like.  It could well be a very exciting summer.

Let’s hope so.